Playing Against Nature
Books about natural disasters and disaster mitigation tend to focus either on their scientific or political/economic aspects. Thus, earthquakes are considered either as geological and seismological phenomena or as risks to lives, property and urban infrastructure.
Playing Against Nature impressively integrates both aspects. Seth Stein is a seismologist - professor of geological sciences at Northwestern University - with a keen interest in US public policy towards earthquakes; Jerome Stein (father of Seth) was, until his death, an academic economist with an interest in science. Their book, the product of many years’ interaction, is a textbook intended for upper-level undergraduate or graduate courses, which will also appeal to instructors, researchers and practitioners interested in geoscience, engineering, economics or policy issues relevant to natural hazards. Although the emphasis is on earthquakes, the authors cover other natural hazards. Some chapters involve considerable mathematics, but this is seldom crucial to their argument.
Among their many questions for discussion is the risk from Italy’s Mount Vesuvius. “Since the last eruption in 1944, the Bay of Naples region has been a hotbed of construction—much of it unplanned and illegal—that has hugely increased the number of people living in the danger zone of the volcano” they note. Millions may be affected by the next eruption, especially those living in the zona rossa (red zone). The Italian authorities are considering the idea of paying these people to relocate. “How would you formulate and evaluate such plans?”
Another question concerns earthquake risk in the US Midwest. In January 2011, the US Department of Homeland Security’s Federal Management Agency (FEMA) issued a call to vendors to provide meals for a survivor population of seven million in the event of a repeat of the severe Missouri earthquakes of 1811-12, one of which temporarily reversed the course of the Mississippi River. This invitation was promptly cancelled, without explanation, when the news media showed interest. “Estimate how much FEMA was planning to spend. What questions would you have asked if you were in the news media?”
Seth Stein’s view, strongly advocated in the media since the 2011 bicentenary, is that a repeat is extremely unlikely, on the basis of his team’s GPS-based regional strain measurements. Money would be far better spent on improving local education and health care than on seismic retrofitting of buildings in Memphis, says Stein. Other seismologists are less sure. Read Playing Against Nature and make up your own mind about such risks and society’s most valid response.
Reviewed by Andrew Robinson*
*Author of Earthshock and Earthquake: Nature and Culture.
PLAYING AGAINST NATURE: INTEGRATING SCIENCE AND ECONOMICS IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD by SETH STEIN and JEROME STEIN, 2014.
Published by: The American Geophysical Union and Wiley 260pp (hbk) ISBN: 9781118620823 List Price: £45.00. W: www.wiley.com
Hydrocarbon Exploration to Exploitation West of Shetlands
Oil West of Shetland once again hit the headlines recently with the Scottish independence referendum. Thus, despite the fact that this Geological Society Special Publication was based on a 2011 conference, its release in mid-2014 feels quite timely.
As Special Publications go, this is a rather thin volume, weighing in at only 229 pages. It comprises 12 papers (plus an introduction), of which 10 are written by scientists working in the petroleum industry, giving it a different tone to many other special publications authored by academics.
Many papers concentrate on case studies and stories from individual fields or exploration campaigns. Laggan, Foinaiven, Glenlivet, Tornado, Lancaster and Cambo are discussed across several papers from either an exploration or an appraisal viewpoint. A separate paper by Loizou discusses the contrasts between some of the aforementioned exploration successes, and exploration failures such as the Assynt prospect. A key message from this section is an over-reliance on geophysics over the underpinning geology, or unsuitability of older geophysical data, led to many exploration failures in the basin.
Further papers in the publication describe the influence of sills on reservoir sand occurrence, the results of reprocessing older seismic to see through basalt cover, the use of formation micro-imaging tools for volcanic facies identification, the use of detrital zircons to date basement history in Rockall and new workflows for cuttings analysis in large igneous provinces. In general these are snappily written, well-argued papers with some very interesting ideas.
I found the volume both interesting and valuable, however it was surprising as a reviewer to have to flick through 180 pages before finding the first photo of real rock. In fact, no papers look at field analogues for any plays. Yet, despite its small size, the volume is of high quality and contains excellent discussions of both successes and failures in exploration West of Shetland. Images are also of high quality and, particularly in the case of the seismic lines over individual discoveries, hard to find elsewhere.
However the volume could be more complete – some of the biggest problems with exploration in the basin (e.g. interpretation of base basalt), and some of the biggest debates (mantle plumes, spatial occurrence and prospectivity of Palaeozoic sequences, etc.) are under-explored. Overall, I would happily recommend this volume as an excellent addition to the Special Publications series.
Reviewed by Murray Hoggett
HYDROCARBON EXPLORATION TO EXPLOITATION WEST OF SHETLANDS by S J C CANNON and D ELLIS (Eds). 2014 Geological Society Special Publication 397, 229pp. ISBN 978-1-86239-652-4. List price: £90.00 ; Fellows’ price: £45.00. www.geolsoc.org.uk.
Seismic Amplitude - an interpreter's handbook
This book provides a comprehensive overview of the basics theory of seismic amplitude and a practical guide to the methods of seismic amplitude interpretation for the identification and location of hydrocarbons and reservoir characterisation.
It includes more advanced interpretation techniques such as Amplitude Versus Offset (AVO) analysis, seismic inversion and rock physics modelling as well as detailing multiple applications of such methods illustrated by data examples from around the world. Simm and Bacon initially examine the fundamentals of seismic reflectivity and modelling theory for seismic interpretation, including seismic polarity, phase, wavelets and resolution.
The full mathematical equations are provided at all stages but they do not overwhelm the reader. The reasons and methods for performing well tie analysis are discussed in the following chapter. These earlier topics are clearly explained and underpin the more advanced discussions on amplitude and AVO interpretation, rock physics for seismic modelling and seismic trace inversion.
The majority of the book focuses on these more advanced techniques and their basis in the relationship between rock properties, seismic amplitude and AVO analysis. The rock properties and rock physics chapters show the reader how the interpretation of seismic data relates to real-world geological and geotechnical parameters. The seismic amplitude applications section is likely to be of particular interest to active interpreters with topics including the derivation of litho/fluid-facies and reservoir properties from seismic data, time-lapse seismic and the use of amplitudes in prospect evaluation.
The estimation of reservoir properties from deterministic inversion, simple regression, calibration and uncertainty, mapping using geostatistical techniques, as well as net-pay estimation are discussed. Items such as the time-lapse feasibility scorecard and Direct Hydrocarbon Indicators (DHI) checklist are handy references for active interpreters. The authors display their extensive industry experience throughout this book, while all terminology is simply and clearly explained. A large number of references are also included to direct readers to further associated literature.
This small hardback book is logically laid out and contains many informative colour data examples from around the world. Included throughout the numerous figures illustrate the text well and help make this book a suitable practical guide for students and beginners as well as an excellent reference for more experience geoscience professionals.
This book is well written and is very good value at such a reasonable price; I would recommend it for anyone looking to find out more about this subject.
Reviewed by Caroline Mason
SEISMIC AMPLITUDE: AN INTERPRETER’S HANDBOOK by ROB SIMM AND MIKE BACON 2014 Published by Cambridge University Press. Hbk. ISBN 978-1-107-01150-2 271pp List Price £45.00 www.cambridge.org
Materials critical to the energy industry
Meaningful conversations on the wasteful use of resources, and whether the resources themselves will soon be used up, require facts. Materials critical to the energy industry provides plenty.
This book, generously credited to ‘Zepf et al.’ but in fact almost entirely the work of one, John Simmons, gives the quantities and factors affecting the supply of naturally occurring materials that the energy industry uses. It works systematically through from geological/geographical sources to finished products, the so-called energy pathway. There is an informative introductory chapter on needs, provenance, extraction, production and usage. All useful lecture-room discussion-starters!
Then there are two-page spreads in legible print and clear diagrams on 23 elements, covering uses in the energy sector, properties and origins, sustainability, reserves, trade, ecological impact, processing, importantly ‘substitutabity’ and recycling, with summary tables of producers, yearly production quantities and prices. Finally come glossary, references and extra data-tables.
The book concentrates on the 23 elements with significant applications in the energy industry. Selected rare earths are taken together (10/17 of the set). The rationale behind the selection is that materials should form part of a final product (rather than be used somewhere along the energy pathway) or be in danger of short supply. Hence, the elements that help create exotic steels (e.g turbine blades), catalysts for product conversions and dopants for electronic semiconductor components are considered; but zinc, tin, iron, manganese (no shortage) or mercury or gold (not in final products) are not.
The layout and the clarity of the prose and illustrations all win. The book’s style reminded me of my school inorganic chemistry book. Its 90 pages are full of facts capable of substantiating any debate now, or for decades to come. It would also be a useful source of facts and figures for quiz enthusiasts, whether for Mastermind or the local pub-night on science topics, particularly inorganic or industrial chemistry. If all the facts in this book could be retained, one would indeed be an expert!
If this is your area of interest (e.g. as a policy maker, regulator, business, academic or concerned citizen) then this book should be on your reference shelf. And better still, since it is based on sponsored research work by the Resource Strategy Department at Augsburg University, southern Germany, it forms part of BP's Energy Sustainability Challenge, and can be downloaded free - see below. I am enjoying learning from it.
Reviewed by Richard Dawe
MATERIALS CRITICAL TO THE ENERGY INDUSTRY - AN INTRODUCTION (2ND EDITION) by ZEPF et al., Published by BP plc, London, UK as part of a series that reflects the work of BP-sponsored Energy Sustainability Challenge, 2014. 90pp sbk. ISBN 978-0-9928387-0-6 May be downloaded here: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/sustainability/group-reports/ESC_Materials_handbook_BP_Apr2014.pdf .